Print run rumours!

[Guest]

[Roz]

Well... we all knew it would increase from last time (500 cases) since it was such a tiny print run to go between so many fans, and it really is an excellent looking set. But rumours have now risen from 800 cases for this set to 1000 cases for this set and now jumped to 1800 cases... that's 18,000 boxes (as all cases contain 10 boxes).

That's 3.6 times the amount of boxes available!

If this is true I think it's going to be overproduced. And despite it being a great set it may not do so well - think of the ROTK or ROTKU sets there's nothing wrong with them visually, the cards are beautiful, the range of autos and clothings are good.... but it bombed!!!

I am just hoping and hoping that this isn't true or I think we will all be very very disappointed. True we'll be able to get more cards than before but still very few will get a master set (as that is dictated by how many Whomping Willow cards there are). From the sounds of it though the Whomping willow will be limited to about 100 (bearing in mind there were 30 last time for 500 cases) which makes it no more rare than a permission slip.

Do you think this set has the popularity to handle such a big print run? I am not convinced! Needless to say I am a bit worried.

[ferdinand_the_yak]

That is crazy - I think that Artbox, seeing the amount of inserts they had to work with thought 'Hey, why not produce more boxes to spread out the cards more evenly? Then we make more money and there is more product to go around = popularity and publicity for next sets'

No offence to Artbox, what they are doing makes perfect business sense, but I think they would do a whole lot better having a smaller print run with better odds and charging more per box. I for one would be willing to pay more for a guaranteed 2 inserts per box release than the odds we are getting now. They would have no problem selling less boxes/cases with a higher profit margin on them

I received an email from an Oz dealer about box prices - $100 AUD a box (say $70 US or 40 GBP) which I would have snapped up if the 800 cases initial rumour was true, but I am hesitating at the 1800 odds. Maybe I will just buy what I want on ebay... :'(

[Roz]

Yeah FTY and I'd say your instinct would be correct.

If the rumours are true and there is a triple signed auto, and say it's limited to 80ish, then if there are say 100 autos by our 3 "heros"... we are talking 380 interesting autos in 16000 boxes.

So that works out at 0.024 of the best autos per box! So in theory you have to buy *get this* 4 cases and 3 boxes just to get one of the interesting autos (not all 4, but just one of them!)

Pardon me but those odds are not nice!

I think a lot of people are going to be dissappointed with this set.

[Tea_and_Fruit]

So trade trade trade.

I do not have enough money to buy only 1 autpgraph card on ebay.

Maybe i will pull 8-9 in my 46 boxes but with my luck 4 ERNIE PRANG  

[Roz]

Tell me about it - in 7 cases I am expecting all the worst plus double of the worst.

Obviously I am after the autos from the 4 *stars* but I am also hopeing for a Dawn French auto  

I am getting one case from the states though so I hope that comes nice and soon as that probably will get here before the UK provision.

[popple]

With all these different rumours and counter rumours, I think Artbox, with only a fortnight to the release (if the rumours are correct) should at least be able to put everyones minds at rest about the true content of this set.
Then we can all wait with bated breath and noses pressed up to our windows, for the post to arrive.

[popple]

With a 100+ members on the forum, we should be talking about trading with each other.
I for one am a collector and will be willing to trade any of my spares.
What say you all.

[garage]

If the print run rumours are true it will be interesting to see if the market can cope with the large number of additional cards - I think the effect will be to drive up the prices of the first set and probably also increase the number of members on this board!

[Roz]

Popple, buying from ebay will be my last resort. If I don't find it in my boxes, or can't trade it on this forum, or can't buy it from a dealer on this forum I'll heave a big sigh and look on evilbay  

Count me in 100% on the trading!

[Tea_and_Fruit]

Here i am ready for trade anything i have for the missing autograph cards....... But wait ....... at first i must open my boxes...... So we can trade maybe.... Next year?  

[ferdinand_the_yak]

Well, I bit the bullet and bought 2 more boxes from ozcardsinc for $210 AUD incl shipping. What do you reckon?

[kbmum]

Roz -- Since I don't know much about the LOTR sets, could you please tell me how the ROTK and update sets bombed?

[ferdinand_the_yak]

Hope you don't mind me answering

ROTK bombed for many reasons, major ones being:
1. Poor card design - very similar to TT set
2. Too many repeat signers
3. Poor choice of new signers - for eg. Random elf, orc and soldier
4. Huge print run - waaaaaaaay too many boxes - you can't give them away

Hope PoA U is not headed down the same path! :'(

[Tower]

Can you please explain what you mean with "ROFK bombed"

What happened exactly at the end? Low prices for one-card-buyers for example?

[ferdinand_the_yak]

By ROTK bombed, I mean that the set was produced in such high numbers and had such low demand cards that people could not get rid of them fast enough. Ebay was flooded, and most cards (incl the rarest card in the set - Saruman) sold and are still selling for about $30-80 compared to the FOTR and TT sets. These 2 sets are still quite pricey, but the cards are beautifully designed and they have great signers, all of which played large roles in the story.

You could pick up a ROTK and ROTKU master auto set very cheaply - except for the ridiculously rare PJ ROTKU now.

[Tower]

Thanks, i understand. Maybe it is good, that i have only ordered 1 case. And maybe i will not open all boxes and sell some. Let´s see what happens, i don´t know yet what i should do.

[Tea_and_Fruit]

Best which could make Artbox is to say edition 1000 Cases (to earn money) that is already more than Buffy for example has. And also with it remain.
According to my opinion they should make more Retail for the "small" collectors of Basics and Foils.

If Artbox makes more cases we  have a second LOTR and gotten still 7 times Hermine of autographs so further. Good for "small" Collectors but not got for a TC Series.

[Roz]

Hope you don't mind me answering

In my absence you did a sterling job of saying what I would have said!

Although I am not sure I'd have said bad card design... maybe I am weird   (oh I think so) but I thought the base sets of ROTK were some of the best, the foils did look amazing - and I know what you mean those Hobbit ROTKU costumes (Frodo sam, merry)  seemed like someone had forgotten to include them in the FOTRU set!

My main explanation for ROTKU bombing (after all the first Sala Baker auto and one from Peter Jackson was a great idea) is that it was just overproduced!

[rns91294]

I am all for trading with each other, however, I am only getting three boxes, so I will probably want what I get and want more still!!!

So for those of you getting cases, the dups you get, if you do not trade, I may be interested in purchasing some of your dups.  When these come out, I will sure to check here before wondering off to eBay.

[ferdinand_the_yak]

By poor card design, I meant the auto card design - colour and b/g design. To be fair, the base set was the best designed of the entire series - had the best pics and descriptions. But the auto cards.. meh

I mean, really - surely they could have found a better PJ pic other than the *I ate something bad for lunch, where's the nearest bathroom?* example they used??? And to make it even better, this card was the rare chase card everyone was after!

TBH, I don't think I would want pay premium prices for a 'toilet' card!