Autograph Numbers for HBP Update

[Guest]

[allender]

Reports are slow. Updated 14 February 2010. Reports are in for 161 boxes, or 2.30% of the 5000-box print run. (We tallied 7.3% in reports for HBP.)

I have kept assuming that all Ultra Rares are available in the same quantities, same for the other groups. Ron/Lavender may be scarcer and Blaise may be more common, but concluding such would eliminate any real separation in average numbers. But if these numbers were really predictive, Julie Walters would be the second-most-common signer!

It looks like Artbox was prepared for a somewhat higher print run than the ultimate 5000, which is lower than any previous update set. The sum of the highest serial numbers for prop cards is a whopping 64% higher than the number expected in 500 cases, and CFCs would be 48% "extra" (higher than previous sets).

Please post, PM, or email reports of the autographs you pull from cases and boxes. One thing we try to do is to see what "clusters" are found: cases that have mostly the same autos, costumes, and props. But any reports of total autographs found across multiple cases are still helpful for the auto tracking.

So far we have 5 clusters (holding the same high chase cards), with 12 of the 15 case-breaks in clusters and 3 unique cases.

Here are guesses for autograph projections, assuming a total of about 2875 signed; including allowances for damage, replacements, and Con goodie-bags. This is 15% over the number expected if there was one auto per two boxes. I suspect that the Elarica Gallacher auto that showed up as a late 3-case incentive might have been planned as a pack insert, possibly a Rare, before the print run was scaled back. If the reports are random selections, the standard uncertainty for a count of 16 is ±4.

Number Reported  -  Estimated Total Signed  -  Signer

  2   -   175   -   Grint/Cave as Ron/Lavender (UR, Redemption)
  3   -   175   -   Helen McCrory as Narcissa Malfoy (UR, Redemption)
  7   -   175   -   Evans/Evans as Slytherin Twins (Ultra Rare)
  9   -   175   -   Julie Walters as Molly Weasley (Ultra Rare)

  5   -   225   -   Amelda Brown as Mrs. Cole (Rare)
  6   -   225   -   Frank Dillane as Tom Riddle, age 16 (Rare)
  6   -   225   -   Georgina Leonidas as Katie Bell (Rare)

  5   -   300   -   Isabella Laughland as Leanne
  7   -   300   -   Freddie Stroma as Cormac McLaggen
  7   -   300   -   Anna Schaffer as Romilda Vane
  8   -   300   -   Dave Legeno as Fenrir Greyback
12   -   300   -   Louis Cordice as Blaise Zabini

[Bogleg]

The 2 case breakdown I've just posted will upset the curve 

[allender]

The 2 case breakdown I've just posted will upset the curve 

Upset the count statistics, anyway. I find it hard to believe that we can say that Molly was one of the most common! Still, it's tough to distinguish Rares from Ultra Rares with the reports we have so far ... !!

[allender]

Updated 14 February 2010, at the top of this thread.  But four of our (only) 14 full-case reports were basically the "same" case, so I suspect statistics are still misleading ...