Autograph Numbers for Memorable Moments 2

Updated 14 February 2010. THANKS to everybody who reported, whether in forums, emails, or PMs! These totals are based on 178 boxes, or 2.97% of the 6000 numbered hobby boxes and about an equal number from preliminary reports. It's averaged out to about 2.23 boxes per autograph but I have no reason to think that seeding didn't average 5:case.

Here's the autograph projections, assuming a total of 3450 signed. This is 15% over the number expected if there was one auto per two boxes. The count of costume numbers is 19% "overage" above the number you expect at 8 per case and prop totals are 48% above the number expected at 3 per case.

Based on the reports so far: I show the number reported, an estimated total number for each item if we extrapolate to 100% of the cards, and the signer(s). You can develop your own "clumps": If the sample is random, the standard uncertainty for a total of 9 is ±3. Current differences might not be statistically significant, but they are a decent indicator if Artbox tried to balance the auto-values across cases; more than half of the full-case reports report an Ultra Rare, which means they averaged more than 100 each.

# reported - Projection to total - Signer(s)

2   -   145   -   Henry Lloyd-Hughes / Clémence Poésy (Redemption; Ultra Rare)
4   -   145   -   Daniel Radcliffe / Gary Oldman (Redemption; Ultra Rare)
4   -   145   -   James Isaac / Tom Felton (Redemption; Ultra Rare)

4   -   230   -   Verne Troyer as Griphook the Goblin (Rare)
5   -   230   -   Richard Leaf as Auror Dawlish (Rare)
7   -   230   -   Predrag Bjelacas / Stanislav Ianevski (Redemption; Rare)

13   -   545   -   Robert Jarvis as Young James Potter
12   -   545   -   Ryan Nelson as Slightly Creepy Boy
13   -   545   -   Tolga Safer as Karkaroff's Aide
16   -   690   -   Apple Brook as Professor Grubbly-Plank (Redemption)

Twelve of the 15 full-case reports are in "clusters", with all of the same special inserts (autos, costumes, and props). Some of the partial reports hint that the Brook auto is most common, though the Safer has also been seen at two copies in single cases.