Autograph Numbers for OP Update

[Guest]

[allender]

Updated 18 March 2008. A slight regrouping reflects the cards that the new Artbox website called "Rare", but which are almost as common as a few cards that aren't marked that way. It looks like about 250 is the boundary between rare and not-rare.

THANKS to everybody who reported, whether in forums, emails, or PMs! These totals are based on 852 boxes, or 14.200% of the 6000 numbered hobby boxes. Some cases have been short an autograph or two, so it's averaged out to about 2.13 boxes per autograph.

Here's the autograph projections, assuming a total of 3450 signed. This is 15% over the number expected if there was one auto per two boxes. The count of costume numbers is exactly 15% above 6000, while prop totals are 40% above the number expected at 3 per case and CFC cards have a 30% "overage."

Based on the reports so far: I show the number reported, an estimated total number for each item if we extrapolate to 100% of the cards, and the signer(s). You can develop your own "clumps": If the sample is random, the standard uncertainty for a total of 25 is ±5, or in the projections, any difference in the population near 250 of ±16 might not be statistically significant.

  5   -     50   -   Daniel Radcliffe / Katie Leung (Redemption; Ultra Rare)
  3   -     50   -   DEP-Z1 - Richard Cubison (Ultra Rare)
  8   -     50   -   DEP-Z2 - Richard Trinder (Ultra Rare)
  7   -     50   -   DEP-Z3 - Tav MacDougall (Ultra Rare)

23   -   235   -   Tom Felton as Draco Malfoy (Rare)
25   -   235   -   Brendan Gleeson as Mad-Eye Moody (Redemption; Rare)
25   -   235   -   Kathryn Hunter as Arabella Figg (Redemption; Rare)
30   -   235   -   Sian Thomas as Amelia Bones (Redemption)
32   -   235   -   Helena Bonham Carter as Bellatrix Lestrange (Rare)

29   -   275   -   Jason Piper as Bane (Redemption)
33   -   275   -   Harry Melling as Dudley Dursley
34   -   275   -   David Thewlis as Remus Lupin (Redemption)
39   -   330   -   Timothy Bateson as the voice / Kreacher

53   -   460   -   Robert Hardy as Cornelius Fudge
54   -   460   -   Natalia Tena as Nymphadora Tonks

There have been 17 "case clusters" where cases have had all of the same special inserts, out of 36 total case reports, with 9 copies of "Cluster A" (three of those were missing 1 or 2 autos). It looks to me like this is a "double cluster" and that there are some "half clusters" where the autographs are the same for two groups but the other chase cards make two distinct groupings. (In other words, some of the clusters are bigger than others. They had to do that, or there would have to be a large "leftovers" cluster ... or else they would have to work much harder to insert everything randomly. Total randomness would result in super-premium and semi-dud cases, and they won't let that happen intentionally.)

Case-toppers don't follow the same pattern, but the "Harry and the D.A." versions are scarcer than the Hermione and Voldemort versions.

[kbmum]

I'm really surprised by your estimate of the the number of Draco and Death Eater autos.  There seem to have been quite a few Draco autos on eBay.  It has the "feel" of having a much larger print run.  I certainly didn't expect the DE autos to be so rare, maybe because there were always many DE autos for other sets.  If there are only 25 of each, the puzzle set of three will be very difficult to put together.

[ztaylork]

I didn't keep track of my individual box/case breaks, but I have cracked 9 cases thus far and here are my numbers:


1-   Daniel Radcliffe / Katie Leung (R)
1-   DEP-Z1 - Richard Cubison
1-   DEP-Z2 - Richard Trinder
1-   DEP-Z3 - Tav MacDougall
1-   Brendan Gleeson as Mad-Eye Moody (R)
3-   Tom Felton as Draco Malfoy
1-   Kathryn Hunter as Arabella Figg (R)
4-   David Thewlis as Remus Lupin (R)
4-   Helena Bonham Carter as Bellatrix L.
5-   Harry Melling as Dudley Dursley
3-   Jason Piper as Bane (R)
3-   Sian Thomas as Amelia Bones (R)
9-   Natalia Tena as Nymphadora Tonks
3-   Timothy Bateson as the voice / Kreacher
4-   Robert Hardy as Cornelius Fudge

Hope that helps with the number figuring

[allender]

Thanks (and also to a PM correspondent who sent me some more).

Please folks, I know that not everybody keeps exact track of specific boxes (or cases, if they open a lot). Totals over a whole bunch of items are quite helpful too!

[gimli]

I opened 68 boxes I too did not keep track of what i pulled individually so here are my totaols 

0 -   Daniel Radcliffe / Katie Leung (R)
1 -   DEP-Z1 - Richard Cubison
1 -   DEP-Z2 - Richard Trinder
1 -   DEP-Z3 - Tav MacDougall
1 -   Brendan Gleeson as Mad-Eye Moody (R)
0 -   Tom Felton as Draco Malfoy
2 -   Kathryn Hunter as Arabella Figg (R)
4 -   David Thewlis as Remus Lupin (R)
2 -   Jason Piper as Bane (R)
2 -   Helena Bonham Carter as Bellatrix L.
2 -   Sian Thomas as Amelia Bones (R)
2 -   Harry Melling as Dudley Dursley
3 -   Timothy Bateson as the voice / Kreacher
5 -   Robert Hardy as Cornelius Fudge
4 -   Natalia Tena as Nymphadora Tonks

[terryweasley]

I haven't posted my complete case breakdowns, but here are the autograph cards from my three cases.

3 Nymphadora Tonks
2 Remus Lupins
2 Kreachers
2 Cornelius Fudge
1 Bellatrix Lestrange
1 Draco Malfoy
1 Bane
1 Dudley Dursley
1 Deatheater/Puzzle 1: Richard Cubison
1 Deatheater/Puzzle 2: Richard Tinder

[HPfamily]

I haven't posted my breaks either!! 
My bad!!
Here are my auto pulls from two cases...

2 Natalia Tena as Nymphadora Tonks
2 Timothy Bateson as Kreachers
1 Robert Hardy as Cornelius Fudge
1 Helena Bonham Carter as Bellatrix Lestrange
1 Tom Felton as Draco Malfoy
2 Harry Melling as Dudley Dursley
1 DEP-Z3 - Tav MacDougall

[LikORish-Spider]

Update for 18 February 2008 is posted at the start of this thread. It covers 840 boxes, or 14.00% of the Hobby run.

It is interesting to note that for 840 boxes there are only 394 autographs, that means the collation is 26 autos off of the 5-per-case (840/5=420). I realise thatthere were some odd box stats but it seems they would have evened out.
Great work, Jeff.

[allender]

Things can be a bit skewed because of the "odd box breaks" as well as full case reports. It's possible that some of the one-or-two box buyers got items from partially searched cases.

It's a lot closer to "expectation" for the full-case reports: 172 autos in 35 cases, or about 2.03 boxes per auto. Reports from less than a full case are showing about 2.20 boxes per auto.

For OOP, we had a smaller % of the total run, but the numbers were closer. Case reports were 1 auto per 2.02 boxes, while odd-box reports were 1 auto per 1.95  boxes.

We didn't have enough odd-box reports from earlier sets to say much. Hmmm. Maybe that means that some people who used to buy cases are buying smaller quantities now. More likely, we're just getting more traffic from the box buyers as the fame of the Yak Shack has spread. 

[allender]

Update for 18 March 2008 is posted at the start of this thread. It covers 400 signed cards from 852 boxes, or 14.20% of the Hobby run. I have regrouped slightly based on the Artbox website's designation of some cards as "Rare", which seems to have a cutoff of less than 250 signed. There's another batch that could qualify as "Almost Rare".