World of Harry Potter in 3-D Autograph Numbers

[Guest]

[allender]

Here's the report on collected results from box and case breakdown results for the 3-D set. Updated 14 February 2010 based on 309 boxes, or 7.73% of the 400-case packaging run.

Of the 27 cases reported so far, there have been 16 cases in 5 clusters that hold all of the same high-chase cards, and another 9 semi-cluster cases that matched with two of the three groups of autos+costumes+props.

Autos were adjusted to a total of 2250, a modest increment over the 2000 expected in 4000 boxes, with an allowance for replacements and damaged cards. The sum of the highest number for costumes is 4520, 13% above 4000 in packs, and for props is 1600, 33% above 1200 in packs at 3 props per case.

All but one case type had a single Harry or dual autograph. I'm assuming that the packaging plan was (generally) to have one of these four per case. Diggory+Krum have been showing up so often that I tend to conclude that they make up about half of the "lead" spots. But there's always the possibility that Yaks don't represent a complete view of all of the big case-buyers and distributors. If case clusters are different in the front and back of the warehouse and Artbox ships in alphabetical order ... Well, you get the idea. Statistics can lie.

# reported -- Est. Total -- Signer

  4   -     75   -   Jamie Waylett and Joshua Herdman
  5   -     75   -   Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter (R)
  6   -     75   -   Richard Griffiths and Harry Melling

  9   -   150   -   Harry Taylor as Station Guard
11   -   150   -   David Thewlis as Remus Lupin
12   -   150   -   Richard Bremmer as voice of Vol. (R)

13   -   215   -   James Phelps as Fred Weasley
16   -   215   -   Robert Pattison and Stanislav Ianevski
16   -   215   -   Oliver Phelps as George Weasley

19   -   280   -   David Bradley as Argus Filch (R)
20   -   280   -   Robert Hardy as Cornelius Fudge
26   -   370   -   Warwick Davis as Filius Flitwick

There are 2 boxes per 10-box case that have only one "high" chase card, because the cel cards were replaced for this series with the two lower chase R and UR sets. Unfortunately, the single costume card in these Lean Boxes is usually one of the more common ones. For 29 Lean Boxes reported, the costumes seen are C3 (16, #600), C13 (8, #500), C7 (3, #425), C12 (1, #470), C1 (1, #350).

Here are the clusters or semi-clusters, with at least two "identical" of each combination seen except as noted. There are occasional swaps of a single costume card for a different one within a cluster.

P1-P2-P8 ...   Crabbe+Goyle, Voldemort, Fred or Filch, Fudge, Flitwick
P1-P3-P9 ...   Diggory+Krum, Guard, George, Fudge, Flitwick
P1-P3-P9       Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Lupin, Fred, George (1 instance)
P2-P5-P7 ...   Diggory+Krum, Guard, George, Fudge, Flitwick
P4-P5-P6 ...   Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Lupin, Fred, George
P4-P5-P6       Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Lupin, Guard, Filch (1 instance)
P5-P6-P9 ...   Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Lupin, Guard, Filch (1 instance)
P5-P6-P9       Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Fred, Fudge, Flitwick (1 instance)
P5-P7-P8 ...   Lupin, Fred, Fudge, Filch, Flitwick
P5-P7-P8       Vernon+Dudley, Lupin, George, Filch, Flitwick (1 instance)
P7-P9-P10 ... Vernon+Dudley, Fred, Fudge, Filch, Flitwick
P7-P9-P10     Harry, George, Fudge, Filch, Flitwick

C11-P2-P6-P10 are somewhat under-represented in the case breaks we've seen so far and P5-P7-P8-P9 seem to be over-represented. But the distribution is close enough to "expected" to make me think the autographs aren't extremely out of whack.

[allender]

Sharon made a point in another thread:

The one thing that I am finding very, very disappointing with the HP cards is the collation.  Yes Artbox have sorted the problem of dud boxes but they have created a new problem of 'set' cases.  By this I mean that there are certain cases with certain cards ie I got the 'F' case - Flitwick, Fudge etc.  I did get everything I should have and I was happy with the cards I received but it is disappointing to know what you are going to pull in the whole case just by the first few autos. 

Yes I could resist the temptation of reading the Shack and not look at the identified patterns but this would not solve the problem.  This (even more than money) is a reason I will never buy two cases of HP cards - I would not be willing to take the risk of getting two identical cases.

Please offer some feedback, either here or by PM. Do people think it hurts enjoyment or the hobby by having the "case patterns" analyzed? I figured there wasn't a big extra potential for "searched" cases because we all generally know that there won't be more than one of the very scarce items in a case, and the numbers of props, costumes, and autos per case are known. I could see a box-buyer getting one box, and then if they didn't get a top insert, asking their dealer for another box from the same case.

I think the estimates of autograph numbers are pretty useful, though it's hard to make final conclusions until you have at least 10 of just about every one.

I also am very hesitant to think of buying more than one case, after a previous report of _five_ cases, all the same, and three of Rich's five this time were from a single cluster. On the good side, for Chamber of Secrets Sharon's case was unique, and for 3D one of Rich's other cases had the sweetest autograph selection of Diggory+Krum, Voldemort, Lupin, and Station Guard with Filch.

Let me know if you have real concerns about the information being posted. I'm getting anxious about my number of posts, wondering if I'll achieve Bull status before Book 7 comes out.   

[kbmum]

I think the info should be posted. We're better off knowing than being in the dark, and it can help people make sound buying decisions.

[Galea]

I agree, I really like these posts and you just saved me $1,200 , rather than buying the extra 3D cases I was going to buy I'll just save the $$ for OOTP. Not that I expect the collation & case clusters for that one will be better .

[cardz_house]

Hmmm, it would actually appears that the dual auto of Crabbe and Doyle are harder to pull than the other 2, judging from what I see here and another forum breakdowns.

Makes me feel a lot better in pulling it although I would still love the Diggory/Krum auto

[Sharon]

Let me know if you have real concerns about the information being posted

I am all for this information to be posted - I hope it didn't sound like I was moaning about the cases being analysed.  Personally Jeff I find your autograph and case analysis excellent.  My one and only complaint is that Artbox is not 'mixing it up' a bit. 

I have real concerns that the uniformity of cases will tempt some dealers to cherry pick cases - I am aware that with one HP set (sorry I cannot say which one) dealers know what batch numbers on the outside of the cases contain the most expensive card.  Now this isn't a problem when the cards are first released as dealers are shipping cases out before they have opened their own and so would not have found any patterns but this is an issue.

[Roz]

Let me know if you have real concerns about the information being posted

I think that many dealers who have opened lots of cases will have got the gist of this already. I think posting this will serve as a careful warning for those who buy boxes ONLY to buy boxes from those that they trust. A case should be OK, but boxes should really only be bought from people you trust.

I don't think this sort of pattern really appeared until after GOF, so you should be OK with boxes before that (if anyone disagrees, feel free to post).

[gimli]

I agree with Roz I have opened over 100 cases of potter cards and problems started when the case shape changed. So from GOFU on I would be careful when buying boxes go to those you trust.

[allender]

Thanks, gang. I wanted to make sure I was "calibrated". I don't believe in providing information that is extremely useful for cherry-pickers, like I wouldn't post case batch number information, and even box numbers would be a problem if there was a hugely relevant pattern. But clusters of case contents are something you could figure out readily from the breakdown posts, and everybody assumes that (for instance) there will usually be one top-level auto per case and a typical selection of the other chase.

Artbox might not be thrilled, but I think the only people who might seriously cut back on buying multiple cases are the ones who have been burned. But most people who have bought multiiple cases are planning to sell most of the stuff, perhaps using the proceeds to fill gaps in their own collection. Getting more than one of any case type is annoying and complicates the "marketing" plan for pulled items, but I can't see distributors abandoning the products in droves.

I'm not convinced that Crabbe and Goyle are scarcer than the others, just that their clusters haven't shown up much yet, and nobody happened to pull one in the single-box breaks. If I just went with the posted breaks, I would conclude that P4 doesn't exist and that P6 was scarcer than the other props, instead of the least scarce.

[bush360]

I dont like the clusters as it takes the fun out of opening the cases, I always order additional boxes for any one I sell to but this has to do with the fact if I am going to open 5 cases i will open 5 cases. However OOTP will be the last time I open loads of cases as the fun is not there as with Star Wars 30th will be.

[Bitsy]

I agree with everything said. I really like Jeff''s analysis--I rely on it a great deal! Please keep it up, Jeff! 

[cardz_house]

Wow, interesting updates on the dual auto numbers!!

[allender]

Wow, interesting updates on the dual auto numbers!!

I might change my mind quickly. The differences are statistically significant, but it looks like there might even be slightly more auctions for Crabbe+Goyle than there are for Diggory+Krum, and the ending auction prices aren't very different. That could be misleading too, since neither one has more auctions than the Radcliffe.

Oh well, according to the Price Guide I might have paid too much for both of those dual autos. 

[The Razzer]

Just got my autograph redemtpions back today.  well some of them.

daniel radcliffe
david bradley x 3

no richard bremner for another 4-6 weeks they said.  also still waiting on another radcliffe which i sent seperately before the lot of 6.  hope they haven't forgotten this one.

artbox have changed the numbering this time. each auto is NOT numbered like in the past. it appears they are sequential numbers.

my radcliffe was AR-170, then the bradley's were AR-173,174,175. so you dont know the numbers for each one   not good imo.  is this the same for OOTP auto's??

[Rich65]

Julie got her Daniel Radcliffe back today  and 2 David Bradleys the letters were numbered AR-474 and AR-476 and 477. We sent in a Richard Bremmer and I am guessing that is number AR-475. I guess we'll find out.

[The Razzer]

got my 2nd daniel radcliffe back.  # AR-478.  i thought they had forotten about it.

[gimli]

I have loads of redemptions to send in but I have been holding off til most of the cards are in for this set and ootp It looks like the time has come for me to redeem. I will send them off once i get back from LFACC this weekend so hopefullly by the time mine get there the ootp Harry auto will be in ( I am not that lucky )

[rns91294]

Anyone know if the Bremmer's autos are in?

[kbmum]

Not yet.

[Bitsy]

No, he is not in yet.