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Author Topic: GOFU Autograph Numbers  (Read 11624 times)
allender
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« on: May 30, 2006, 02:05:54 PM »

Updated 14 February 2010 (added 9 boxes).

Data from box and case breakdowns span 691 boxes, or 9.21% of the 7500 numbered boxes. Hot Boxes and SDCC Goodie Boxes are not included. I assumed a total count of 20% above the 3750 you'd expect from 7500 boxes to cover replacements and alternative distribution.

The pattern for cases that have five autos but no Daniel, DE1, DE2, nor Quad has become more random, so I concluded that "Chance-for-a-Quad" and "Chance-for-a-Harry" cases could have any choice of five lower autos if they don't have a top card. When one of the four 'primo' cards shows up, the groupings of the other four autos has been constant.

# reported in breakdowns - projected total - card

10   -   110   -   Quad Card (by redemption)
  8   -   110   -   Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter

18   -   250   -   Alex Palmer as a Death Eater DE2
22   -   250   -   Ashley Artus as a Death Eater DE1

25   -   350   -   Frances de la Tour as Madame Maxime
27   -   350   -   Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore
28   -   350   -   Clémence Poésy as Fleur Delacour
29   -   350   -   David Tennant as Barty Crouch Jr.
30   -   350   -   Katie Leung as Cho Chang

34   -   440   -   Roger Lloyd-Pack as Barty Crouch
36   -   440   -   Bonnie Wright as Ginny Weasley

45   -   575   -   Afshan Azad as Padma Patil
47   -   575   -   Shefali Chowdhury as Parvati Patil

Notes: There appear to be six main groupings of autographs within cases. Except for the cases that don't have a Daniel or an auto/costume card (from postings I've seen), these six case types always have the same five autos. (Auto/costumes are included in this definition.)  The six clusters of 125 cases each seem to be: Quad-possible, Harry-possible, DE2, DE1+Dumbledore, DE1+Fleur, and Fleur+Maxime. But the DE2 numbers have almost caught up with DE1 from reports that didn't describe full-case compositions, so I think there's another grouping that hasn't been seen because of the partial reports, and the two Death Eater auto/costume cards are equal in numbers.

Chance-for-a-Quad, Radcliffe, and Palmer are members of only one group each; Artus, Dumbledore, and Fleur are in two groups; and the others are in three groups. If the "others" were available in equal numbers in the no-prime-cards cases, they would total about 450 each. But the Parvati sisters show up more often and Madame Maxime less often, so I've split the group to (sort of) match the statistics.

By case type:
( 4 )  DE1 + Dumbledore-Ginny-Junior-Maxime
( 8 )  DE1 + Fleur-Cho-Junior-Senior
( 8 )  DE2 + Dumbledore-Padma-Parvati-Ginny
( 5 )  Fleur + Cho-Parvati-Senior-Maxime
( 2 )  Quad + Padma-Parvati-Senior-Ginny
( 4 )  Dan + Padma-Parvati-Ginny-Maxime
  ( 6 )  Five "Low" Autos - Cho-Padma + 3 others

Other assumptions:
-- Totals add to 4400-4500, including "overage" for damage and replacements.
-- Overage basis: 9000 costumes by adding numbers on cards, in 7500 boxes, =20% overage. Used same ratio for autos.
-- Props were 3110/2250, 38% overage. CFC 3150/2250, 40% overage.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2010, 06:29:59 AM by allender » Logged
Tower
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2006, 05:09:59 PM »

Hi Jeff,

if you check the breakdowns (my breakdowns for 3 cases will follow), you'll see that every case contains a box with 3 inserts and every box with 3 inserts contains a guaranteed Dan, Fleur, DE1 or DE2. Maybe we have to add the Quad. And those didn't appear anywhere else in the boxes.

So we have in 750 cases maybe:

50 Quad
100 Daniel Radcliffe
200 Fleur Delacour
200 DE1
200 DE2

What do you think?  The Fleur is a premium Autograph.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2006, 05:14:14 PM by Tower » Logged
allender
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2006, 05:38:58 AM »

Good point, I'll watch for it. There's three cases like that, but there's another breakdown that didn't identify where the 3-box pack came from, that didn't have one of the big four or a Fleur. I call that a "Ginny" case below.

Not all of the Fleurs were found as a third item, so they might have picked a few of them to fill out the "one per case" rule and put the other half in with the others. Or maybe we're trying to see too much in random happenings and 2% of the print run!

The "clusters" are starting to take some more shape.

All five DE2 cases also held Dumbledore-Padma-Parvati-Ginny.
All three Dan cases also held Padma-Parvati-Ginny-Maxime.

DE1 split into two groups:
Three DE1 cases also held Dumbledore-Junior-Ginny-Maxime.
Three DE1 cases also held Fleur-Cho-Senior-Junior.

Three Fleur cases also held Cho-Parvati-Senior-Maxime.
   (One of these offered an extra DE1, 6 autos total)

The two oddballs have a relationship, too:

Fleur -Cho-Padma-Senior-Junior
Ginny-Cho-Padma-Senior-Junior

The Quad case reported Padma-Senior before the reporter found the Quad and quit opening boxes after five, so perhaps the 'oddballs' were in a packaging cluster for the Quad cards and didn't get lucky.

Not all of the case breakdowns reported the autos box-by-box, but the ones that reported it fit Tom's "lead character" theory. Possibly the three-insert-box groupings were, if you shoot for either 750 boxes or the 900 total-made target:

125-150 Chance-for-a-Quad
125-150 Daniel Radcliffe
125-150 DE1-A
125-150 DE1-B
125-150 DE2
125-150 Fleur (also found in DE1-B)

That would put every signer into three groups (375-450) except for Dumbledore and Fleur in two groups (250-300) and Dan in just one (125-150). That makes sense, so it's probably completely wrong.  Wink It could be we're seeing a pattern in one part of the manufacturing process and there might have been different patterns early or late, but it does explain why we see fewer Dumbledores and more DE1 than DE2.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2006, 05:52:37 PM by allender » Logged
LikORish-Spider
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2006, 08:49:02 AM »

I guess the Quad is not going to appear.
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rns91294
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2006, 10:01:21 AM »

John, I have a feeling one will appear for you Praying
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allender
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2006, 05:05:30 PM »

A face can be assigned to a Quad, because a poster in another forum reported pulling one in box #5 of a case. But excitement took over and we didn't hear about the rest of the case. ... Grin
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rns91294
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2006, 11:14:09 PM »

Jeff, is the one you are counting from the poster in the other forum?  If so, are you counting the one that appeared in the hot box as well, or are we not counting them since there was one of each auto in it.
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Roz
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2006, 11:22:33 PM »

Jeff says (above) that the hotbox is discounted and is assumed as in the "other" category (the tonne of stuff that doesn't usually go into product).

I'm sure Mr Allender's keeping his eyes on as many forums as poss Wink
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allender
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2006, 03:30:25 AM »

I only really know of two forums, and the other one is far behind this one! But that's where I spotted the Quad pull in a half-case. Like Roz said, I put a little note in the thread-starter that I wasn't counting Hot Boxes for the statistics.

For TSS I went out and tried to contact as many people as possible by email to ask for more breakdowns. It turned into a lot of work and I ended up with reports for 14% of the boxes. For GOF, I just watched the forums and still came up with 10%.

C'mon people, give some more reports! I want to test my new "six cluster theory" (6CT) of case composition!!

Any cards in the Hot Boxes would fall in the total count including extras made for replacements, etc. The sum of the xxx's in "#/xxx" for costume cards is 9000 and there were only 7500 numbered boxes. So you could make a lot of Hot Boxes if you have enough "extra" autos.

Notice that Sara posted the hot box breakdown right after I posted my case stats. Gee, I knew I'm sometimes a tough act to follow, but that was overkill!  Grin

I really need to split these into separate messages if I ever hope to become a Yak ...
« Last Edit: June 01, 2006, 03:36:44 AM by allender » Logged
rns91294
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2006, 04:51:45 AM »

 Embarrassed  I see that you put the Hot Box note in there.  I am embarrased to say I only skimmed it.  I was too interested to see what autos were pulled to read the rest.  Silly me Roll Eyes
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2006, 08:34:17 PM »

Hi
I found your Stats very helpful I am now buying extra cases whilst I can get them I will post my findings ASAP. It was just a shame my cases didnt have a little more variety, but I think it gives a clue to how the sets are collated.
Keep up the good work mate  Grin
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padge77
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2006, 03:03:56 PM »

Morning All Wink Cheesy Grin

We are thinking of just buying a box or 2 as we have spent a lot of money already this year,I know we might not get much out of them but a few cards is better then none for us as we just buy what we can from each of the sets.

Cheers

Paul
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2006, 10:44:29 PM »

I received my QUAD autograph card yesterday. It was number 20 on the redemption letter. It was send FEDEX Ground on 28 July. (Must have been by turtle express ground.)

Anyway add this to the ones in the grab bags given away at SDCC and maybe we can get an estimate of how many Quads were made.

Anyone with a redemption letter with a higher number?
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Roz
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2006, 11:00:25 PM »

Yeah, I got number 22 (letter date 31st July)... Grin
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2006, 01:50:54 AM »

I believe there were 8 total Quad Cards given away in the Comic-Con boxes. I saw them seperating the cards into piles on Preview Night and the guy that was distributing them layed down 8, right in front of me. Shocked It was so amazing all the cards that were in front of me, many of which were fantastic. I saw some nice variants. I actually saw my wand card seperated that day. I still cant believe I pulled it the day after!
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2006, 02:09:01 AM »

After a very very long wait my Quad arrived on saturday and my letter is numbered 25 dated 2nd august
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2006, 02:18:36 AM »

Was it just sent normal airmail or did you have to sign for it Chris?
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gimli
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2006, 02:22:02 AM »

I sent it international signed for and it came back Global Prioity so no signiture it was just pushed through the door
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rns91294
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2006, 02:24:15 AM »

When we got our Quad card redeemed, it was dated June 14th, and was number 10.
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2006, 11:58:51 PM »

I got my quad card in the mail today.  The letter was numbered 26 and dated August 8, 2006.
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