The Yak Shack Forum

Updated 14 February 2010, based on breakdowns for 18 cases, 235 boxes or 6.27% of the box/case run.

I gave up on the assumption that the Death Eater auto/costume cards were issued in the same quantities. The relative numbers of the autographs from the box and case breakdowns is about the same as the number of ebay auctions for the items, so I guess we haven't seen just one side of the distribution in the breakdown reports.

There should be about 1875 auto cards in 3750 boxes, but I raise the total by 20% to predict the total number signed (about 2250). The count on numbered cards is 4470 costumes (19% over 3750 expected in boxes) and 1665 props (48% above 1125 expected). You might expect to see some of the extra prop cards in SDCC goodie-bags.

# reported - projected total in 2250 - signer

  3   -     70   -   Emma Watson as Hermione Granger
  2   -     70   -   DE3 Philip Rham
  4   -     70   -   DE4 Paschal Friel
  6   -     70   -   DE6 Richard Rosson

11   -   250   -   DE5 Olivia Higginbottom
15   -   250   -   Maggie Smith as Minerva McGonagall

18   -   345   -   Jason Isaacs as Lucius Malfoy
27   -   515   -   Eric Sykes as Frank Bryce
32   -   610   -   David Bradley as Argus Filch

Case breakdowns are showing clusters, with only 5 basic combinations of autos seen in 17 cases.

  3 - Watson, DE5, Sykes, Bradley, Bradley
  4 - Smith, DE5, Isaacs, Bradley, Bradley
  5 - Smith, Isaacs, Sykes, Sykes, Bradley
  2 - Isaacs, DE5, another DE, Sykes, Bradley
  3 - DE4, DE6, Sykes, Sykes, Bradley

I see sub-clusters where the costumes and props are also duplicated.

Wow Jeff if your estimates are close at all, there is going to be allot of unhappy buyers paying $300 +++ for Maggie Smith's auto....that should drop like a rock very soon....Mo

I think only one has sold for $300+ so far.

I wonder if we're just getting a lot of Maggie luck at the moment though, it's only a small representation of the print run as yet.

Well actually there have been 2 so far sold at $325 ea. I was also including all the ones that are listed and ones that private websites have the auto also for sale, I questioned the quad when it first came out, at the time it was listed at only 50, but saw 8 or 10 at the same time sold/forsale...I agree that it's still early days on these numbers and I too thought the Smith auto est. was rather high (300), but who knows...Jeff has been in the range approx. every time

I am actually shocked to see so any Maggie's as well.  I thought I heard she was supposed to be the rarest of the set.  Who knows.

I'm not doubting Jeff, but in such a small sample things can be skewed ;) so keep opening everyne ;D

At least all autos have popped up.  Remember how long it took for a Ron auto to show up?  We started to think he didn't really sign for that set :rofl:

If these numbers are correct I think it is quite disappointing.  OK the one I want may be quite a common one but this also means lots of people will get duplicate autos in their cases (as we have already seen).  If there are only 375 cases then there should be no one signing more than 375 cards (other than for Artbox to keep for damaged cards).  The same goes for the costumes - I was quite disappointed to see cards numbered higher than the case total.

I am quite shocked by the Deatheater cards though, I sort of assumed they would be much more common.

Well gee, it's still quite early, but I expect we might get a higher % of the boxes reported because the people who post breakdowns will be a bigger % of the buyers.

Death Eaters might be about as common (relatively) as they were with GOFU, since the total print run was only half as large for MM.

My impression from the pre-release buzz wasn't that Maggie Smith was going to be the rarest, but that there was a lot of interest because she hadn't signed before. I don't know how I got the impression, but I did have a hint that the yet-another-Emma was going to be scarcer than the Maggie. That wasn't confirmed specifically, though.

Of course, in the early days, people are a lot more likely to bother to post a breakdown if they pulled a Maggie auto than a Sykes auto. Still, the early returns from full cases hint that she was in the "second tier" of scarcity, like the Gambon auto from GOFU. Time will tell. The earliest boxes and cases shipped might be skewed from the total packaging run.

I note that there is about 50% more prop cards (adding up the numbers) than there should be in packs, at 3 props per case. Perhaps we will see a bunch of them in goodie bags at the next SDCC?

Oh, I hope so! I am a big fan of the Mystery Boxes...they are so much fun!

Update posted 14 February 2010 at the top of this thread, for 18 cases, 235 boxes or 6.27% of the packaging run.