The Yak Shack Forum

I do not know how much of this you overseas folks are aware of but the United States has suffered its worst natural diaster since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake this week.  The States of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have been devestated and look very much like the areas in the Pacific destroyed by the recent tsunami.  The major city of New Orleans is 80 plus percent underwater with reports of thousands of people killed in that city alone.  The city is being evacuated by the military and martial law is in effect.  Thousands of Search and Rescue personnel from all over our country are responding to the areas hit by the storm.  There is no power, fresh water, or food for the people and the temperature is around 100 degrees with high humidity which is going to cause medical problems for many especially with all the dead in the waters.  The authorities are saying at a minimum people will not be allowed back in the city for at least 4 months!  The other areas hit by the hurricane which came ashore as a Class 4 storm were wiped out with nothing standing for over 100 miles along the coastline. 

The remenants of the hurricane have been passing by where I live in New Hampshire today with heavy rain and damaging winds but nothing compared to the areas along our Gulf Coast that bore the initial brunt of the storm.  My heart and prayers go out to all who lost loved ones and their homes.   

Where did you see reports of "thousands" of deaths? My family is connected to New Orleans and the reports we've been hearing are much lower ... Course, I haven't talked to them in a bit (since last night) so maybe things have changed...

My thoughts and wishes go out to the people invloved its horrible.

Its also funny how different countries have different reports. I know when the bombings happened in London the American reports had a higher death toll than the UK ones maybe its so not to frighten people.

The mayor of New Orleans said that he "fears" thousands could be dead and looking at all the devestation looke like its possible :'(

My family and I are praying for all the familys and hope it doesnt take forever to get another place to call home and are thoughts and prayers are with you :o=. 

The reports of the high death toll have been on all the major news stations, CNN, and Fox.  Numerous on site reporters have been describing the devestation and death they are seeing first hand all day today and that is where the death toll is coming from.  This is not including the loss of life from all the other areas hit by Katrina. 

The other major consequence from this disaster is our nations fuel supply as 25% comes from this area.  Prices in some areas in the nation have jumped to $5.00 a gallon today and it may go higher.  There is talk of rationing in some areas.  This is a major diaster which we in this country will all feel in many ways.

I've been hearing about this in particular as the NOAA (American ocean and atmospheric observation dudes) buoys got knocked out! It's annoying for them from a selfish data collection point of view as it means they can't be sure of what is actually going on - but they suspect the region is also suffering not only from Katrina itself but also from a storm surge (where atmospheric pressure affects the height of the sea locally and in a big way causing tides of 4 or 5 metres above predicted high tides worsening flooding situations). They sent out an appeal for other countries' observation data in the region to the coastal research community this afternoon.

We experience minor storm surges all the time but when they are small we just assume something funny is going on with the tides, the UK last had a serious one in East Anglia in 1953 when thousands of people living around the North Sea (particularly East Anglia and the Netherlands) were lost.

Very bad timing!

Another year of "once in a lifetime" Hurricanes.

Yes, it's terrible. My thoughts are with all of them. Nature's power is incredible and yet deadly. Goodness knows where the population can make their homes now, let's hope a lot of people have family in other States who will take them in.

P.S. I saw the appeal too but I don't think the data from the sensors out in Essex will  be quite what they are looking for Roz :rofl:

I've just been looking - it's possible to send donations to ease some of the more immediate problems through the American Red Cross:

http://www.redcross.org/

The site is really slow and I hope that's because of all the donations rolling in ;) I'm going to try tomorrow - it's just not loading now and it's so late!

P.S. No, but it made me think about the thresholds of what our sensors would stand up to - smarty pants ;)

I saw more of this on the news tonight.  It just seems to be getting worse.  I heard there is a hole in one of the flood defence walls that sounded so huge I can't see how they can fill it.

Even though this is thousands of miles away from the UK all the place names are so familiar it is like I actually know the places.  Lets hope they can get all the trapped people out very quickly and safely.

On Sept 8, 1900, Galveston, Texas was struck by a hurricane. Over 8000 dead in Galveston. The History channel is going to run this show again. (Issac's Storm?)
It's interesting to note, if you see it, that a minor Weather Station (US Government) Chief thought he knew it all, resulting in the higher death toll.
New Orleans is really a disgrace from a disaster point of view. Everyone in local, state and federal government are aware and have been aware
for years that New Orleans is a target for huricanes. they have had virtually 105 years to engineer those levies and design a better evacuation system.
The people of New Orleans, unlike those in Galveston, were warned a week in advance. Every level of government was aware of the potential problem.
This is just another case of negligence at all levels. And as ED says, 1906 brought the SF earthquake.
Worst case senario, 2011 brings the LA/ San Andres Earthquake. I can hear it now. "Why, Oh why didn't someone warn us.

I believe there are two cliches about this mind set:
1. Those who do not PROFIT from history are doomed to repeat it.
2. Once the horses are out it's too late to close the barn door.

We are going to end up with a lot of elected and appointed people standing in a circle pointing the finger-of-blame at the person to their right.
This high level of loss of life could have been prevented.

Not to be argumentative, but New Orleans has one of the BEST Evac plans in the country - for this very reason. Whether people comply or not is entirely up to them and MANY opted to stay, knowing the danger they were in - including apparantly, Fats Domino and his family, who are now among the missing.

This is a tragedy - our gulf-coast states have been ravaged by none other than Mother Nature. This is not government's fault. This is not terrorists fault. This is the fault of a powerful storm that decided not to listen to men who said she couldn't come in, and came in anyway.

I totaly agree with  LikORish-Spider

I have read "Issacs Storm" 2 days before the Tsunami disaster and after that i could not sleep for a long time, because the people were not warned and die without a chance.

Now the people were warned and i can only repeat what LikORish-Spider said

This high level of loss of life could have been prevented.

Year POOR humans and CRUEL Nature. (that is really small minded)

I ask really why America is still against the Kyoto Protocol  ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

You cannot destroy the earth and then cry like a baby when nature strikes back.

Sorry but i think now it is time that America (and the world) learn that we must pay sometime the price for for our life-style.

I am sorry for all this poor people but i think this disaster was definately not the last one. And it is only a matter of time where the deaths the millions reach when nature strikes back.

We could argue that people shouldn't be living on drained marshland in the first place, the natural state of the land New Orleans is built on is to be vegetated rarely flooded marshland that would have dissipated the wave energy as it moved onland.

The idea of draining marshland and living on it became popular in Europe as land was scarce, but it was also because the area was then easily accessible by boat and many of these cities became ports. Of course when I am thinking about this I particularly have London in mind.

Out of the hurricane belt these cities have been successful, but that doesn't mean it's been easy -  in 1953 we were threatened by a storm surge, by some miracle it did not affect London as it could have done and much of the damage occurred along the East Anglian Coast and across the Netherlands. Our politicians realised how near to London this had come and later built this:

(http://www.sixtiescity.com/Events/Images/barrier.jpg)

No, it's not pretty but it's a massive barrier, and should a Storm Surge take place it shouldn't overcome it.

The Enviroment Agency (the UK equivalent of WES but with no military connection) says "In 1953 there was disastrous flooding on the East Coast and the Thames Estuary with a toll of over 300 lives. If this flood had reached central London's highly populated low lying areas the result could have been horrifying beyond measure."

I think "horrifying beyond measure" just about sums up the situation in New Orleans.

Between 1983 and 1989 the Thames Barrier was only closed 4 times, in 2001 it was closed 15 times, and the trend is continuing. With anthropologically induced climate change we expect it won't last beyond 2030, not because it's old and tired ;) but because it won't be tall enough!

All this is in a city where 10 metre (25 feet) floods (if a surge were to coincide with high tide) are a worst case scenario... not in a city in the path of a Hurricane, that is much harder, and perhaps most importantly - much more expensive to defend.

But John I don't agree with you on the Earthquake comparison, that's much more difficult to see coming ;) but if you live on a fault line I suppose you have to keep your cards in a safe place ;) and you have to be prepared to cope with the worst case scenario... just like if you live in a flood plain (which a great deal of the UK population does!)

NOAA have released their aerial photos of the path of Katrina

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM

I can't even begin to speak to that statement. Or to this one :


There is absolutely no reason to wish death or devastation on anyone simply so that they "learn" a lesson. Would you wish a fatal car accident on a drunk? Would you wish a heart attack on an obese person? Would you wish a promiscuous girl to be raped so that she learn her lesson?????

There have to be better ways to teach someone that wish they be injured or dead.

The Thames barrier is great although I may end up swimming as I am the worng side of it ::)

I can not understand why people make such a "BIG thing" about it when 1000-5000 people die in a disaster but no one says only one word about the thousands of people who die everyday at hunger or in war.

For me it seems that every dead human that died in a disaster in a country like USA or Europe is more important for our society as a dead one in Africa or other countrys.

It is easy to see only the by the media preferred horror messages (who cares about people in other countrys?) but what about that 800 victims in the panic in Bagdad? Or the 100000 humans that each day at hunger die?

we were warned before possible victims by hunger - but do nothing
we were warned before possible victims by natural disasters Katrina - but do nothing

As I already said it. It is tragically.

There are allways two sides. You ask if i would wish a fatal car accident on a drunk and i say YES, but hopefully a accident without other victims. Every human is responsible for itself and his environment. Think about it, if he is drunk and drives his car in a group of children, would you say "this poor drunkard" or would you say "Alcohol with drive is forbidden"?

And now after Katrina would you say "this poor people" or would you say "Environmental pollution and urban bad planning have consequences"?

Sorry for my bad english and if we would discuss in german i would use other examples and arguments but i do my best.

Prehaps this is more telling in the fact that in a country as great as the United States, one of the richest countries in the world we are still stuck with a society of have and have nots. True the folks of New Orleans had ample warning to flee the city and many did except for the individuals who did not have the means, the poor, the elderly without family, living on a fixed income, the unfortunate person trapped by the bonds of alcohol or drug addition and the homeless. Many who are in the Afro-American minority. Many sought shelter in the Super Dome, many just simple tried to ride the storm out in their homes and many were forgotten. Those with the means to leave the city are safe and hopefully have insurance that will cover some of there losses. But many of the poorest in one of the richest countries on earth have lost everthing. To look at the pictures day by day on the news an it makes me weep. Assistance from our own courtry has been weak at best getting to the ones in greatest need.
Their are tales of horror and heartbreak everywhere. How would you like to be a six 6 year old to survive the wind and flood waters with your small puppy, only to have your friend taken away because what home you had was gone and where you were being relocated pets were not allowed. This happened to one small child who cried until he vomited. Of course the news media in the U.S. does drum a constant  coverage to beat the point home what has occured here and it makes it look much largest that what happens in Africa, the Middle East, or other parts of the world. But human suffering is human suffering. By the way Roz keep up your good work, I think your little sensor in Essex will have a major impact beyond your wildest imagination one day. Yours is the future of the world take care of it wisely. From one of the oldest members of the shack.

Well... this is something insurers are looking into, in the UK they have been using your postcode to look at recent claims before insuring you for decades, however in the last few years they have mapped every home in the UK entirely by height above sea level, recreated flood plains etc on computers and so you will get a quote based on how likely you are to flood.

Long term with rising sea levels, increased storms and wave heights, home insurance in places of risk are going to be at least as expensive as health insurance is in the US now... it's quite scary. And as you see - this just makes the lives of the poor much more difficult than it is now.


What got me was a woman reporting "there is an old lady over there dead in her wheel chair! All around me, people are dying" - anyone watching who's heart strings weren't being twanged must have been made of stone, what a tragic end.


Well, I'll definitely do my best I'm rather young but when I eventually have children, I want to leave them a world safer than mine, and with the challenge of climatic change that's no easy task... excuse me a moment, I'm just placing a bid on some land ("real estate") half way up Mount Snowdon ;) (just kidding!)!

Roz I have been looking for this map for ages.  Do you know if it is available to the general public?  It is just Crackpot Ken (Livingstone) is trying to build a slum estate on a known flood area near me.  The insurance companies have already said they won't insure the new homes but darling Ken says this isn't a problem.

I have been seeing lots of things on the news and what strikes me is why they don't just airlift people out?  I know there are thousands but with lots of helicopters (I am sure we would send ships to help) would this not be possible?  Maybe some of our American Shackers can give me an idea of the geography - on the news it looks like they could just ship people up to New York.  I am sure it is not this simple but we only have what we are told on the news to go by.

I should also like to add that if the same thing happened in the UK (God forbid) I am sure the rescue effort would have just as many problems as the current ones in the US.

Sharon, PM me the co-ordinates or the name of the location and I'll look into it for you - the people who have actually collected the data are:

http://www2.getmapping.com/home.asp

He hee - what's the best ship to get such a large number of people moved? Hmmmmmmmmmm *THE QUEEN MARY II* She can get from the Carribbean to New York in 36 hours - she can fit in 2,500 passengers in luxury - so let's say 4,000 in a crunch. Whether prestigious Cunard (aka White Star Line) would offer this - is very much in doubt.

And before you laugh - Canberra was called up to ship out troops in the Falklands!

It turns out that Sharon's talking about a proposed development near to this

*cough*

(http://www.bbc.co.uk/essex/discover_essex/nature/rainham_diary/images/rainham_ditch_270.jpg)

*splutter*

Tell me this guys - does that look like a lush, dry, green, patch of cattle grazing pasture - or like land set up by nature to naturally absorb water and drain itself?

Continuing to build upon areas like this is simply asking for trouble... no we don't get hurricanes of any real scale in the UK but we DO get a lot of floods.... hence why this stuff is marshland in the first place.

Don't worry Ed, here in the UK Petrol has reached £1 a litre - there are 3.7 litres to an American gallon, so we pay £3.70/$6.83 a gallon, so you are still winning ;) but our price hasn't jumped, it's crept up during this year - it was only 80p a litre at the beginning of the year! So you can see why a lot of people in the UK value the miles per gallon quota on a car above all else (EU safety tests are so stringent that we don't talk about a car's "safety" so much over here -although I am not sure why, I think the point is that if we all get tank sized cars then we are just endangering other people on the road and especially any pedestrians crossing the road, you can never make yourself "safe" in a big car no matter how big because you will never be bigger than the trucks (juggernauts) carrying loads around the country), oh and we all seem to love the Italian low fast sleek style of cars too.

Anyway, the news tells us that BP (the British Petrol company) have already started pumping again in the Gulf of Mexico so I don't know whether prices will fall here again but I think that's unlikely.

£1 a litre? Help! It was 93 ish most places yesterday and I paid 89p at Sainsburys! So we have had a jump, even if only a small one ;) but it doesn't seem worthy of complaint compared to what the guys in NOLA have been going through

Eeep! And I thought we were paying a fortune! Currently we are paying $1.30/L in Sydney (prices fluctuate about 10-15c either way depending on where you are in Aus) or $AU4.80/$US4.00 a gallon, but they are saying that it could go up to $1.50 a litre, which is still below what you guys in the UK and US are paying :o

Interesting article

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/343324p-292991c.html

What's the reputation of this newspaper?


People do seem to forget that there are no ordinary Cat4 hurricanes (15 Cat4 hit the US in the last century out of 560 total hurricanes), and this was Cat4 only because it was a couple of mph below the Cat5 threshold!!!

It would be easy to criticise the situation thousands of miles away over here in Europe and people have commented that 1999 double storm (Lothar and Martin) over Europe was a much larger event with only 80 casualties - and from this people have tried to draw conclusions about an American race and poverty problem, but this is an unfair comparison, yes it affected a much larger area, but I don't believe that it would match in any way the intensity and windspeed - (although it was exceptional in terms of European speeds) - the energy of a hurricane is unimaginable to us, on the order of 8000 megatons of TNT *per day* for an typical Cat2 storm.

The evacuation warning was the day before the hurricane. That is insufficient time to stock up places with supplies. Hurricanes have a tendency to change direction. This one did. Stocking up various places on the off chance is also expensive and wasteful. So I doubt that any suggestion they were trying to weaken peoples resolve to get out by dehydrating or starving them was true.

Although I have to ask, why did it take so long to organise buses and airlifts?

Another interesting article - this one from the National Geographic. Chilling isn't it - this was an article published a year ago predicting exactly this scenario... read an bit -

" It was a broiling August afternoon in New Orleans, Louisiana, the Big Easy, the City That Care Forgot. Those who ventured outside moved as if they were swimming in tupelo honey. Those inside paid silent homage to the man who invented air-conditioning as they watched TV "storm teams" warn of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing surprising there: Hurricanes in August are as much a part of life in this town as hangovers on Ash Wednesday.
 
But the next day the storm gathered steam and drew a bead on the city. As the whirling maelstrom approached the coast, more than a million people evacuated to higher ground. Some 200,000 remained, however—the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm, and those die-hard New Orleanians who look for any excuse to throw a party.
 
The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over. Nearly 80 percent of New Orleans lies below sea level—more than eight feet below in places—so the water poured in. A liquid brown wall washed over the brick ranch homes of Gentilly, over the clapboard houses of the Ninth Ward, over the white-columned porches of the Garden District, until it raced through the bars and strip joints on Bourbon Street like the pale rider of the Apocalypse. As it reached 25 feet (eight meters) over parts of the city, people climbed onto roofs to escape it.
 
Thousands drowned in the murky brew that was soon contaminated by sewage and industrial waste. Thousands more who survived the flood later perished from dehydration and disease as they waited to be rescued. It took two months to pump the city dry, and by then the Big Easy was buried under a blanket of putrid sediment, a million people were homeless, and 50,000 were dead. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States.
 
When did this calamity happen? It hasn't—yet. But the doomsday scenario is not far-fetched."

No indeed, it wasn't far fetched!

http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

Was Katrina exceptional ? No
Was it predictable ? Yes
Will it happen again ? Yes
At worse intensity? Yes

And frankly people are burying their heads in the sand if they think otherwise.