The Yak Shack Forum

Guys,

Looking at the way prices are heading with boxes I thought it would be interesting to try to estimate their real value based on the sales in ebay (I know a pretty exciting life!!!).  Based on the rough values it looks like the true value of a box should be between 140-150 although the maths may be wrong!


                                  Number   Approx    Total
 Harry Robe                        100   550   55000
 Ron Robe                       100   550   55000
1 x Harry T Shirt                        600   50   30000
 Harry Costume                        750   45   33750
 Hermione Pink Sweater        450   80   36000
 Hermione Robe                       900   45   40500
 George  Quidditch Robe      1300   25   32500
 Exploding Bon Bons          96   200   19200
 Daily Prophet                       200   120   24000
1 x Zonko's Bag                        300   40   12000
 Dervish And Banges Bag        484   40   19360
 Honey Dukes Bag                        434   40   17360
 Black Pepper Imps                          90   200   18000
 Permission Form                        100   150   15000
 Spindle's Lick O Rish Spiders          70   300   21000
 Chocolate Frog                          86   200   17200

Total                                                 6060   445870
Total Per Box (ratio 1:24 packs)      89
         
                                             Number   Approx     Total
Gary Oldman As Sirius Black                   150   150   22500
David Thewlis As Remus Lupin                   150   90   13500
Robert Hardy As Cornelius Fudge   316   35   11060
Emma Watson As Hermione Granger   150   380   57000
Bonnie Wright As Ginny Weasley   316   35   11060
Michael Gambon As Albus Dumbledore   150   110   16500
Matthew Lewis As Neville Longbottom   316   35   11060
Olivier Phelps As George Weasley   316   35   11060
James Phelps As Fred Weasley   316   35   11060
Julie Christie As Madam Rosmerta   316   40   12640
Total                                                       177440
Total Per Box (ratio 1:48)                        35.488

Base Set                                                         12
Box Topper                                          5

         
Market Value of a Box Approx                       142

Wow, that is great stuff!!! Thanks for posting that 8)

So according to the post, considering I have a Weasley curse and have 3 Ginny Weasley auto's from 17 boxes and 6 Ron Costumes will that help the value since I now own 1% of the Ginny autos
And .5% of the Ron Robe  ;D

Where did you get those quantities for the auto's???

 The auto breakdowns come from the case breakdowns which have been posted on various sites. Of the 23 cases broken (approx 5% of the total) the breakdown is below. The number column represents the number of times the card has been pulled and the extrap indicates how many would be in existance if the odds remained the same for the rest of the cases.

As a rough estimate it looks like the black, lupin, granger and dumbledore cards are probably going to average out to around 150 and the other cards a little of the 300 mark.

                                                              Number      Extrap
Gary Oldman As Sirius Black                             4              88
David Thewlis As Remus Lupin                         5              111
Robert Hardy As Cornelius Fudge                     13             288
Emma Watson As Hermione Granger                 8             177
Bonnie Wright As Ginny Weasley                     16            354
Michael Gambon As Albus Dumbledore                7                155
Matthew Lewis As Neville Longbottom               13            288
Olivier Phelps As George Weasley                      18             398
James Phelps As Fred Weasley                          15           332
Julie Christie As Madam Rosmerta                      14           310

Wow
I got 13% in my maths senior exams at school so my head is still spinning. :o
Sorry to ask this question if its already been asked but if those numbers are anywhere near correct how do they compare to estimates of other card sets eg FOTR. I know Topps doesn't give numbers but i would imagine there would have been an awful lot more than 150 of a popular auto.
greenpaw.

Maybe not... maybe Artbox wasn't sure of the reaction to it (are they crazy? Put the 2 words 'Harry' and 'Potter' together on anything and it sells like hotcakes!) and wanted to test the reaction first. Also, perhaps an issue with child labour... couldn't get those kiddies too exhausted with signing 2000+ autos like the LOTR series  ;D

If they turn out 500 000 cases of PoA update, then we will know  :D

Yeah, yeah, I live in the UK and get to attend Harry Potter (and others!) premieres! No need to keep rubbing it in  ;) How was it BTW? Get any nice photos?

well I have to say those are low numbers and that means that these will dry up quickly those auto prices are way too low for these at the moment

Agree... *races off to ebay*

ya thats a nice auto alright i'm after it myself

In regards to Ferdinand's comment re the popularity of HP. I contacted an Australian card distributor a few weeks ago (just before the POA were released) to see if they were going to bring them into Australia. Their response was that they weren't because no-one (except me) was interested so it wouldn't be worth it  :o

I have yet to see if anyone in Australia has these cards for that reason. I have contacted a few shops from WA to QLD but no-one seems to be sure if they are getting anything or what they are getting.
Greenpaw

Greenpaw, whereabouts are you from? I can't find anything at all anywhere, but maybe I am not looking hard enough? I have googled Harry potter and artbox to search Australian sites, but have come up with zilch

Hi Ferdinand
I'm on the Sunshine Coast in QLD.
I own a business that deals with comics and collectables so tried to order through an Australian distributor who told me the above excuse.
I ended up getting one case from Potomac in the US. Wish i had ordered more but i wasn't sure if i could legally bring them into Australia.

Is it just me or are Trading Card compaines really hard to get any information from? I've been trying to find out if Artbox deals exclusively with this distributor and can't get any response.Looks like an early morning phone call coming up.

I emailed a card shop in WA and they said they will find out at the end of the week if they are getting any, the same response from a shop in QLD. I have the feeling that they have all missed the boat.
Greenpaw

Hope they get the message and get on board the boat for PoA update!

Hey Greenpaw,
                        Perth Western Australia here i saw one box but it was 225.00 and have since gone back and it has been sold but have been unable to find any others.
                                         I have emailed artbox everyday for the passed week and they have yet to even look at my emails. If you do get any boxes please feel free to let me know would love to have just one .
Hey ferdinand,
                       How are things with you. My friend just opened her case and boy is she p'oed the only double she got was emma watson card and she is selling that to me. she reckons that it was just not worth the money. But she did get both harry's  

mcgonagall