Autograph Numbers for Half-Blood Prince

[Guest]

[allender]

Updated 14 February 2010. Reports are in for 511 boxes, or 7.30% of the 7000-box print run. I am judging that the Michael Gambon auto is a bit more Rare than the other Rares. Natalia Tena seems to be running "short" enough so that she's about as scarce as the Rares, and I'm grouping her there. (Recently the trends have been going slightly more in the other direction, so I might change my

Please post, PM, or email reports of the autographs you pull from cases and boxes. One thing we try to do is to see what "clusters" are found: cases that have mostly the same autos, costumes, and props. But any reports of total autographs found across multiple cases are still helpful for the auto tracking.

So far we have 10 "clusters" of cases with  all-the-same chase cards, covering 35 of the 42 case-break reports, 4 others are a near-cluster with only 2 cards different, and 4 unique cases. So your case is probably like somebody else's.

Here's guesses for autograph projections, assuming a total of 4000 signed; including allowances for damage, replacements, and Con goodie-bags. This is 14% over the number expected if there was one auto per two boxes. The count of costume serial numbers (6680) is 19% above 5600, the number expected in packs for 8-per-case, while prop totals hint at a 34% "overage" versus pack insertion at 4-per-case and there are 35% more numbers for Cinema Film Cel cards than "expected." If the reports are random selections, the standard uncertainty for a count of 16 is ±4.

Number Reported  -  Estimated Total Signed  -  Signer

  6   -   100   -   Radcliffe/Felton as Potter/Malfoy (Ultra Rare, Redemption)
  6   -   100   -   Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley (Ultra Rare)
  7   -   100   -   Emma Watson as Hermione Granger (Ultra Rare, Redemption)

12   -   190   -   Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore (Rare, Redemption)
16   -   270   -   Helena Bonham Carter as B. Lestrange (Rare, Redemption)
17   -   270   -   David Thewlis as Remus Lupin (Rare, Redemption)
19   -   270   -   Maggie Smith as Prof. McGonagall (Rare, Redemption)

22   -   345   -   Natalia Tena as Nymphadora Tonks
30   -   495   -   Evanna Lynch as Luna Lovegood
33   -   495   -   Jessie Cave as Lavender Brown
40   -   625   -   Ralph Ineson as Amycus Carrow (Redemption)
47   -   740   -   Suzanne Toase as Alecto Carrow (Redemption)

[Angels]

Redemptions received from Artbox today. All in except for the Radcliffe/Felton card. Note saying that they are still waiting for the card to be returned from the actors. As for the rest the letters were numbered as follows.

Emma Watson as Hermione Granger AR 7064
Michael Gambon as Albus Dumbledore AR 7062
Helena Bonham Carter as B. Lestrange AR 7061
David Thewlis as Remus Lupin AR 7065
Maggie Smith as Prof. McGonagall AR 7063
Ralph Ineson as Amycus Carrow AR 7067
Suzanne Toase as Alecto Carrow AR 7066

[allender]

Updated 14 February 2010 at the top of this thread.