Autograph numbers for POAU

For completion ("all the sets") I went back to compile information from box and case breakdowns for Prisoner of Azkaban Update. The reports cover 1308 boxes, or about 5.8% of the combined USA/UK/Japan hobby packaging run.

Packs predict an insertion rate of 1:120 packs or 2:case, but we've seen an average of about 2.23 autographs per case lot. Part of this total comes from packs that had more than one auto. I set the assumed "total" at 5700, about 15% above what you'd expect for 1:108 packs, to give an allowance for replacements, damage, and goodie bags.

The only new insight is that the dual Fred & George signed card is probably a bit less scarce than predicted. I didn't see a single report of a pack pull for the Radcliffe auto, but other sources tag the number signed at about 65.

# reported - predicted total out of 5700 - signer

2   -     45   -   Radcliffe / Watson / Grint
0   -     65   -   Daniel Radcliffe as Harry Potter

7   -   175   -   Emma Watson as Hermione Granger
11   -   175   -   Rupert Grint as Ron Weasley

13   -   250   -   David Bradley as Argus Filch
13   -   250   -   Pamela Ferris as Aunt Marge (R)

17   -   375   -   Chris Rankin as Percy Weasley
18   -   375   -   Dawn French as The Fat Lady
19   -   375   -   Richard Griffiths as Uncle Vernon (R)
20   -   375   -   James Phelps / Oliver Phelps
21   -   375   -   Jaime Waylett as Vincent Crabbe
23   -   375   -   Harry Melling as Dudley Dursley

27   -   535   -   Jimmy Gardner as Ernie Prang (R)
28   -   535   -   Genevieve Gaunt as Pansy Parkinson

31   -   600   -   Lee Ingleby as Stan Shunpike
42   -   820   -   Warwick Davis as The Choir Conductor